Calorie counting doesn’t work?

Ali Afshar
4 min readDec 31, 2023

It all started while I was listening to a well-regarded podcast earlier this year. The featured guest was a diet expert or chef or something — all that was clear was that he was selling something. He also had the title of “Dr” which was exciting for me, because in a world where anyone can say anything, credentials do tend to matter. I was programming in a different window as I do, so my full attention wasn’t there until the guest mentioned that “zero studies have shown that calorie counting works”.

I’ve been gradually gaining weight for some years now. Since I turned 30, I was about 30 kilograms heavier, and if counted as a BMI I was squarely in the “obese” category. That’s not great, but wearing slightly baggier clothes — exercising fairly regularly and just getting on with life, it wasn’t really a problem. OK, beaches are not much fun, but whatever — perfectly chiselled 45+ men with 2 kids running around are generally the exceptions where I go on holiday so I was not particularly upset about it. Granted, my loved ones would occasionally tell me I had put on more weight and really they were telling me because they love me and I would squash that uncomfortable feeling down, probably with something sweet as a chaser.

Back to our fateful day — “zero studies have shown that calorie counting works”. ZERO STUDIES? Well that’s insane for a start because I can probably cherry pick enough work to claim that the moon is made of cheese. Zero studies in any science, and especially such a lucrative area of science is not just rare — it’s an impossibility. Furthermore, what does that mean “doesn’t work”? Surely counting in itself works, that’s pretty established mathematics, so it can’t be that bit. Of course just counting the things is not going to achieve anything, so I am assuming he meant “doesn’t work to lose weight”. Well that’s strange. I clearly remember my nutrition lecturer from university 25+ years ago holding up a kilogram of fat, and explaining one weird calculation that told us that just 100 extra calories a day would lead, over time, to a decent level of obesity. Maybe Professor Jackson was wrong. So I decided to take a look for myself.

Spoiler: there are literally thousands of studies that show that maintaining a negative calorie balance does in fact cause an individual to lose weight and there are thousands more that indicate that an excess calorie intake causes weight gain.

There are so many studies and such a huge body of clinical research in both healthy and diseased patients that this is regarded by most people in the industry as an incontrovertible truth.

So why say it doesn’t work. Well obviously you are selling some kind of bullshit. Maybe “bullshit” is too harsh. Maybe you are selling something perfectly reasonable and you just want to boost it a bit — I guess this is a more fair assumption. This approach really panders to the confirmational bias approach that I was so comfortable to inhale at every opportunity. “It’s not my fault I am fat” is true, but not really for these reasons. “I have a slow metabolism” is impossible that such a thing even exists.

After spending a few hours reading some reviews of literature from the highest authorities (there really are way too many studies to read individually) I came to a firm conclusion: If I eat less and exercise more, I am going to lose weight. And so it began. And so I did. I wasn’t perfect — I replaced most of the bread and rice with lettuce (that’s awesome, I suggest anyone does it). I was careful about eating lots of protein in my diet. I stopped smearing the bread I did have with butter and huge chunks of cheese. Oh, and I started doing cardio. Like seriously doing low intensity cardio. At first it was getting 10k steps a day, and you know what it worked. Later as I became a bit more aggressive with this whole thing I started cycling outdoors and indoors, and I am at a place where I exercise about 90 minutes a day.

The result

  1. My resting heart rate is down into the 60s — that’s what I am most pleased about. Cardiac changes happen *fast* and this just makes me feel healthy. I can sprint up a staircase and not be out of breath.
  2. I have lost 14.9KG this year, which looks around the absolute upper limit of healthy weight loss. I have dropped a single clothes size. I am now no longer “obese” but “overweight” instead.
  3. I have gained control over my weight. I have a bunch of levers I can tweak and I know that if I need to, I can diet effectively for a period of time. This control and understanding has given me a much closer insight into my body, and a much healthier relationship with food.

I hadn’t planned to write so much here, but since I have, I realised I could have written 10x more. I’ll never likely write a book about anything but this would sure be an interesting topic. Instead I’ll leave you with a list of bullshit that I have heard which I am fairly sure none of it is true. As with anything with human physiology it is more complex than anyone knows so it’s unlikely I know the truth. Anyone who tells you otherwise is yanking your chain. If something works for you, go for it, no matter what anyone else says.

The bullshit

  1. Calorie counting doesn’t work
  2. You are gaining weight because you have a slow metabolism
  3. Cardio doesn’t work
  4. Cardio slows down your metabolism
  5. Fat free diets are the best approach
  6. Carb free diets are the best approach

That’s a small list for you. The amount of capitalist-driven disinformation available is extreme, so be careful out there people.

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Ali Afshar

Google Developer Platform. Advanced Trauma Life Support. Open Source. Abominator Class.